
In
seeking to achieve a Leave vote in the EU referendum there are two essential
facts that campaigners need to understand and accept if they are to contribute
to victory. First of all, that leaving the European Union is a process (a
complex one at that) not an event. It will take time to separate ourselves and
exploit our independence and it will necessarily be done in transitional stages
because you cannot untangle forty years of integration in one fell swoop.
The
second is that the initial stage of our secession must guarantee our economic
security, that is to say we need a “soft landing”. This is obviously to protect
our economy and prevent recession, but it is also absolutely necessary to
de-risk the Leave proposition and make the public feel it is a choice that they
can make safely. Once in the voting booth the majority of people will think
pragmatically and any high ideals of democracy and self-determination will be
overruled by the risk factor, hence why an economically neutral exit is
essential for winning, as well being a good thing in itself.
With
all of this in mind we propose a process of staged separation and urge people
to see this for what it is, the United Kingdom becoming a newly independent
nation state, and realise that this would be in many ways no different to the
situation de-colonised countries found themselves in after secession.
Any expectance of a sudden clean break is totally unrealistic and even
if it could be achieved it would be undesirable and chaotic. Therefore the
Leave vote in the referendum, and the subsequent Article 50 notification, will
the beginning of a process in which the United Kingdom leaves the EU, regains
its independence and begins to re-engage with the world.
The
most optimal (but not only) option for the initial, interim stage of the
process is to rejoin the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and trade with
the EU member states through the European Economic area (EEA) – this is
popularly known as the “Norway option” but it is more accurate to call it the
“market solution”.
As
is routine for newly independent nation states, we would repatriate the entire
body of EU law. This proposal, actually an inevitable part of the withdrawal
process, will be objected to by those keen for a “big bang” immediate sever of
ties. Their concerns are based on profound ignorance and their desire for an
immediate clean break is a political impossibility. Repatriating the entire
body of EU law guarantees minimal disruption and allows for the necessary time
to be taken for proper scrutiny of the UK statute book and a considered review
before repealing undesirable legislation in due course.
In
many cases, immediate separation – or indeed eventual separation – of shared
administrative and political activities is undesirable or impossible, at least
in the short term. These include:
- Horizon
2020
- The
Single European Sky
- The
European Space Programme
- Shared
customs operations
- Sanitary
and phytosanitary controls
- Anti-dumping
measures
- Maritime
surveillance
It
will also include certain police and criminal justice measures, the raft of
which will be reviewed along with the rest of the body of law. Many such issues
are best dealt with on a multi-national cooperative basis and there is no
benefit to going it alone.
The
idea is to lay the stable foundations necessary for the UK to exploit its
independence and reap the benefits over the long term – for in creating a
vision for our country we must think of the next 10, 50 and 100 years, not just
the immediate future – and plan a smooth and economically secure transition
into the post-EU world.
The
basic framework we set out could be in place within two years of the
commencement of Article 50 negotiations.
The relationship between the current EFTA/EEA members and the EU
provides a model on which we can begin to design the initial stage of the UK’s
new relationship with the EU, it is in a sense an “off the shelf solution”.
This
is about properly redefining our relationship with EU member states. We will
continue to travel alongside our neighbours and allies in the EU, but we will
be on different paths that better suit our different needs and desires.